The dawn of former army commander Maj Gen (Rtd) Mugisha Muntu’s Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) is a breath of fresh air in the ever-teetering opposition politics in Uganda.
Opposition politics has been defined by an intrusive and abrasive modus operandi. His entry in the political fray has been generally greeted in the elite circles. He has won the acclaim of being organized, astute and focused. His traction and belief in structural formations endears him to those who cherish the politics of networking rather than politics of activity. In his speech at the launch, he highlighted the need to create synergy with those they share a common vision.
However, what does the entry of ANT in the political arena presage for the already existing parties? From the outset, ANT struck a responsive chord with the elite opposed to NRM and the defiant nature of FDC. Many elites fell out with Dr. Besigye’s style of politics of activity rather than the politics of structures. This was a major point of departure in the ranks of FDC, which led to Gen Muntu’s exit.
As president of FDC, he was opposed to politics that was identified by ad hoc activities like walk to work, call for Tsunami to cause political change, etc. He emphasized that change would occur through a political process that is well tempered and appreciated by the rank and file. This rosy picture of almost a sugar candy nature may be the karma of the current opposition politics.
The first visible sign of unease is the genre of the promoters of ANT who at some point formed the bedrock of FDC. It is clear that the biggest causality is FDC whose popularity countrywide was hinged on strong personalities in different regions.
It’s the voice of these individual personalities that anchored the FDC roots in those areas. Areas like Kasese and Teso region became strong FDC strongholds riding on the backs of popular people like Kasese Woman MP Winnie Kiiza and Alice Alaso for Soroti. So with their departure, what does this portend for FDC?
The political grapevine has it that about 29 FDC Members of the current Parliament in already have their souls in ANT, though the body is still in FDC purely because of legal requirements that only allow a crossover in the last year of the term. Whereas most of them have been disjunctive in the public domain, Paul Mwiru (Jinja East) has been more open on talk shows, clearly stating that he belongs to the “wide opposition” and not FDC. This spells doom for FDC especially in Busoga region that has only two FDC MPs. Can they carry their weight to ANT and FDC finds itself in the doldrums?
The entry of ANT may also have far-reaching consequences for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). It is true there are people who are disillusioned by the continued stay in power by the NRM for various reasons but could not stand the style of Dr. Besigye’s politics of confrontation. Can they find solace in ANT?
This calls for soul searching because going by the figures of registered voters who didn’t vote in the previous election, it could be possible that they never found appeal in both Museveni and Besigye, now with Muntu, he could fill the void. It is evident, a sizeable number of elites are irresolute during voting yet they are active in civil society criticizing NRM, can Muntu allure them to vote? Certainly, this will be an opposition vote against NRM.
Another lot is one which is opposed to the NRM, but think Besigye has lost the popular appeal due to the many times he has failed to beat Museveni. These ones are not necessarily against FDC but rather candidate Besigye, it is possible they would remain in FDC if the candidate changed, but all indications are that he will appear on the ballot. These could see Muntu as a viable alternative. This will hurt FDC. The domineering stance of Dr. Besigye makes it hard to offer an alternative, so those who feel he has had his day in the sun would prefer to quietly leave him without causing another split publically.
However, this scenario may change if coalitions are formed and a push for a joint candidate is effected, which is also hard to strike a consensus.
The advent of Robert Kyagulanyi and the people power outfit on the political scene roil the already murky waters in the opposition camp. How ANT will relate with people power remains a daunting task to surmount. Kyagulanyi has come with a wave spurred mainly by the central region, any attempt that seems to make him play second fiddle to Muntu will be seen as an act of betrayal, yet the reality is that with no known political structures and lack of political experience is likely to blow the wind out of the sails. Kyagulanyi needs a semblance of structures to base his ambitions, which so far are non-existent. This may call for closing ranks with ANT.
However, Muntu faces one humongous challenge, the same bogey Besigye has always faced mostly from central Uganda, the tribe or region of origin. There is a popular feeling that anyone vying to replace Museveni should not come from western Uganda. This is the very reason Kyagulanyi is portrayed as a viable alternative, his novelty in the political space notwithstanding. So, how to navigate through, will depend on the way Kyagulanyi performs on the popularity index.
What should not be overlooked, is that the hype and goodwill Muntu has been accorded was the same which Rt Hon Mbabazi received in quarters that mostly shape debate; the elite and media. In the end, it turned out a bubble at the ballot box.