The 2021 general election was one of the most hotly contested in Uganda’s modern political history. The fiercest race was between the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), led by Gen. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, and the National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine—a musician-turned-politician. The election period, which officially began with party primaries in 2020, concluded with an overall victory for the NRM.
Gen. Museveni won the presidential election with 6.04 million votes (59%), defeating Kyagulanyi, who received 3.63 million votes (35.08%). Eleven candidates contested the presidency, including independents John Katumba, Willy Mayambala, Fred Mwesigye, Lt. Gen. (rtd) Henry Tumukunde, Joseph Kabuleta, and Nancy Kalembe, Patrick Oboi Amuriat (Forum for Democratic Change); Maj. Gen. (rtd) Mugisha Muntu (Alliance for National Transformation); and Norbert Mao (Democratic Party). Notably absent was Dr. Kizza Besigye, Museveni’s main challenger in the previous four elections since 2001, who chose not to contest in 2021 and instead pursued other forms of resistance.
After the election, Kyagulanyi challenged the results in the Supreme Court, claiming the process was neither free nor fair. He accused the Electoral Commission, led by Justice Simon Byabakama, of failing to conduct a credible election. Kyagulanyi cited widespread ballot-stuffing and intimidation of his supporters and agents during the campaigns and on Election Day. He later withdrew the case, alleging that his witnesses were being harassed and abducted by security operatives. However, the NRM camp noted that Kyagulanyi had petitioned court to seek a soft landing for his voters.
In the 2021 general elections, the NRM maintained its Parliamentary majority with 336 seats nationwide. NUP won 57 seats, primarily in the Buganda region. Other parties performed modestly: the FDC secured 32 seats, while the DP and UPC each won nine. Justice Forum (JEEMA) and the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) gained one seat each. Additionally, 74 independents were elected to Parliament, many of whom leaned toward the NRM.
Looking ahead to the 2026 general election, a rematch between Museveni and Kyagulanyi appears likely. Kyagulanyi has already declared his intention to run, and NRM supporters have endorsed Gen. Museveni to stand again as their flagbearer. As the election approaches, the NRM will need to pay close attention to the Buganda region, which could again prove politically volatile. Early signs indicate strong support for Kyagulanyi’s NUP there. If Jimmy Akena, son of former President Milton Obote, contests the presidency under the UPC banner, he could also draw significant support in northen Uganda, while the NRM is expected to retain dominance in Western Uganda, and likely in West Nile and Eastern Uganda—with the exception of Busoga.