When the photos of Dr William Ruto with Raila Odinga meeting president Museveni at his farm in Kisozi emerged, it came as a shocker to both sides of the political divide in Kenya. There were pervasive screams of betrayal on either side of these two avowed antagonists. The supporters of each, look at this move as both selfish and a blow to their political survival. These two ran an acrimonious election campaign, which Ruto won against all popular belief that whoever has both deep state and “system”’ takes the day. It was beyond common immagination that with Uhuru Kenyatta and all government infrastructure on Raila side, a victory of whatever sorts was conceivable. To their consternation, Ruto did not only win a national vote, but also overwhelmingly got a landslide in Uhuru’s backyard of Mt Kenya and in his home at Ichaweri, Gatundu.
This was a huge humiliation to a head of state who abandoned his Deputy President for a long time bitter opponent he had trounced twice in general elections. Since the election, the political tensions have been high, leading to violent street protests and loss of many lives.
The politics of Kenya is crafted along tribal inclinations, it is a historical fact, Luos and Kikuyus don’t relate in matters politics. Ruto’s win over Raila in Mt Kenya was basically because they looked at Uhuru’s support for Raila as an act of betrayal and disrespect of the tribal norm of not aligning with Luos. The current cozy overtures by Ruto towards Raila, political pundits are painting a likely fallout in the Mt Kenya region. It is not clear how a working relationship between these two bitter opponents will shape the 2027 general elections, with the populous Kikuyus jittery. Without Kikuyus, the political arithmetic for Ruto becomes tricky. The hostility towards Raila in Mt Kenya is legendary.
The visit of the two to Uganda also raises a few eyebrows, it is a widely held view that Raila and Museveni are not close buddies. During the 2011 elections, Raila attended a Mengo function in Lubiri, at the time the relationship between central government and Mengo was frosty, it was interpreted to mean support for opposition. It should also be recalled that in the same elections, Ruto campaigned for Museveni in the Karamoja region. The Kenya opposition holds the belief that Museveni played a role in the victory of Ruto over Raila. It is such sentiments that Junet Mohammed, MP for suba East constituency, Migori county and a right hand man of Raila, expressed when he called Museveni a dictator, murderer and other profanities, that led Museveni to sue him in East African court of justice for defamation.
Politics is not for the weak-hearted, for long, Raila was on the streets leading violent Mandamanos (protests) , that led to loss of over 50 lives mostly from Luo Nyanza, with a clear call, “Ruto must go”.
It was so violent that for 2 weeks the country was burning, streets deserted, businesses looted and burnt, no viable economic activity took place, and basically the country came to a standstill.
It took the intervention of former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo at Mombasa in a reclusive meeting between the two protagonists that sanity was restored. This led to the National dialogue committee setup to address Raila ‘Irreducible minimums’ that demanded lowering cost of living, re-constitution of the selection committee of IEBC commissioners, auditing the 2022 elections by opening the servers, inclusivity among others. The NADCO report is yet to be discussed in National Assembly with jitters among principals of the Azimio coalition dismissing it totally.
It is at this point that the new found love between the two enemies is causing a lot of foreboding on both sides of their support bases. Kenyan politics is crafted around tribes and a potential winner of the next elections, not parties or any particular ideology. It is about being on the right side of the political dichotomy at the time. It is not surprising that leaders of formidable parties are quick to fold own parties and board the bandwagon of a potential winner at any stage of the election process and craft a special purpose vehicle in form of a coalition, just only to be on the winning side.
Before elections, Azimio coalition was a loose conglomerate of regional, tribal parties, which originally felt that Raila with Uhuru and the state machinery behind him, he was destined to win. They all trouped to Azimio, only for Ruto to win, the next day without invitation, they had crossed to Kenya Kwanza coalition and Azimio who initially had parliamentary majority found itself licking its wounds when it was swept overnight.
This explains the rancor of Raila towards Ruto and the violent Mandamanos.
Luo Nyanza is in a fluid state, looking at the new found love. On one hand there is a section celebrating the departure of Raila’s chokehold, his word is final, picks leaders, decides who wins, decides who stands and demands total loyalty to the chagrin of independent minds. The moment he disowns you, his cultic following doesn’t allow you to stage a single rally, let alone stepping in Luo Nyanza. Those that have tried like Gideon Ochanda, Jalango Odiwour, Elisha Odhiambo, Mark Nyanita, Paul Abuor, John Owino, Tom Ojienda, Caroli Omondi have been declared outcasts. This group is praying that Raila goes to African Union Commission (AU) not that it was their wish, but good riddance.
So, the news that Ruto is campaigning for Raila among EAC region is well received. This also leaves Ruto home and dry in 2027 elections. Chances are that Raila’s Luo block may shift allegiance to Ruto as a payback for supporting one of their own. However, the Luo support, may come with unexpected consequences, the alienation of Ruto’s Mt Kenya populous support, because traditionally with negatve cultural undertones, these two tribes have never been on the same political slat, though Raila, via ‘Kibaki tosha’ maxim, supported Kibaki against Uhuru, it was after realizing that his own bid had run in headwinds, he had no choice.
The other hand is one that has existed and survived by acting as Raila’s minions or fanatics, whose aphorism is ‘Baba is always right”. To them his departure is the ultimate level of betrayal, more so if it’s Ruto who is engineering it. They are convinced that at 84 years in 2027, still, he is the best man to put up a formidable challenge against Ruto who is barely 60 years. Of course, it is a selfish stance, given that they didn’t have to campaign in order to win. Since their opposition would not be allowed in Luo Nyanza. They are quietly praying that the AU bid fails to let Raila come back to local politics.
In all this political configuration, Mt Kenya region will play the tramp card to determine the direction of the new found bromance between Ruto and Raila.
Where does it leave Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua, a Kikuyu from Mt Kenya in the new political arithmetic, if the Luos come on board in the new formation? The region is jittery, given that it gave Ruto 46% of the vote on the basis of hating Raila. They also look at Ruto as having betrayed them. There is already talk of a new regional outfit, called Kamwene, led by Martha Karua with subtle backing of Uhuru wa Kenyatta.
Time is the best judge, 2027 is still ahead but it is important to note that there is no political formation in Kenya that has remained intact over an electoral cycle of 5 years.
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