The recent altercations between Uganda and Rwanda have delineated Paul Kagame as that proverbial craftsman whose only tool at his disposal is a hammer and so he treats every object like a nail. If all the time you have to apply the might of a hammer to fix the loose ends that could have been neatly fixed by a simple cello tape or glue, then you have a belligerent psyche.
If you eschew dialogue but choose truculent options to solve misunderstandings, you make it hard for shuttle diplomacy to thrive like now the Angola debacle of 21st August. In a dialogue, it is not always that you must have your way, lest you render the word consensus meaningless. The “cost factor” mantra, whether metaphorical, figurative or literal, it speaks volumes to the mindset of Kagame, when it comes to handling divergent opinions.
Right from the nascent RPF escapades in Kisangani 1&2, the dialogue could have saved that bloodbath, but Kagame chose to attack the positions of UPDF, even when it was clear that the UPDF was under strict orders not to return fire. He later went around chest-thumping as a victor in a battle that never was. If the UPDF had taken a stern action, today we would be talking about RPF in the past tense. This is a sum total of a character whose mindset is devoid of peaceful resolution of issues. This attitude is clear when you analyze the way he deals with his political opponents, expressing divergent views in a political space that is expected to be democratic.
He either kills them wherever they are in the diaspora or at home. A classic example was the assassination of Col Patrick Karegeya in South Africa. As a cover-up, the Directorate of Military intelligence (DMI) crafted a narrative that his death was linked to the death of a popular Burundian musician Jean Christopher Matata on Jan 3rd, 2011, following a gold deal gone bad and so, according to DMI, it was a revenge attack. To the consternation of the world, Paul Kagame came out to ‘clear the air’ and categorically stated that: “You should be saying we killed him, what are you afraid of, I am so disappointed in you. This serves as an example to whoever wants to betray Rwanda. No one will survive, it’s a matter of when, how and where,” Kagame told a breakfast prayer meeting.
This has been followed by many suspicious deaths of his real and imaginary opponents. Last week, Kagame was quoted to have said that he would make it “costly” for those who are opposed to his political thought. It was a veiled attack on Uganda and those he believes are against his style of leadership. The question is how costly can it be to Rwanda to raise the bill of those who don’t agree with him? For starters, Rwanda is disadvantaged on all fronts, politically, geographically, economically and even socially.
Politically, Rwanda owes its existential roots to Uganda, it was contrived and modeled on the ideology of the NRA, most of its leadership has an emotional attachment to the NRA struggle, so any attempt to extricate from that history is an attempt to boil the sea. Rwanda will always look up to Uganda as a big brother. So, when Museveni counsels Kagame to talk to his political opponents instead of killing them, it rattles him, not realizing that at one point Museveni had 27 armed groups fighting him. He subdued them, one by one through negotiations till they were all brought to the fold. Museveni has been a master of this politics of soft power diplomacy for decades, Kagame would borrow a leaf. He instead looks at this as overbearing and meddling in internal affairs but it is a tested and trusted way of winning over hearts without coercion.
So, can Kagame foot the bill of such a political palaver? Rwanda’s political terrain is highly tribal, the Tutsi–Hutu dichotomy roils the political waters, any attempt to scuttle the voices of opposition is viewed as an affront to ethnic hankering. So, what is the cost of having half of your population detached from your government and feel like second rate citizens?
Geographically, Rwanda is sandwiched by giants, whose working relationship is too lukewarm. What is intriguing is that Rwanda has issues with each one of them. Rwanda is supporting forces fighting President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi, it is conflicting with Tanzania on the issue of refugees that flee his draconian leadership, where anyone opposed to him is branded a genocidaire or Interahamwe.
Rwanda has for long accused Congo of giving sanctuary to remnants of the Interahamwe and has conflicted with all the leadership right from Kabila senior to the current. Uganda’s case is well documented, Kagame is too paranoid that nothing positive comes from Uganda. It is absurd that he can’t leverage the immense reservoir of experience from his mentor. Sincerely, Rwanda, the equivalent of an average district in Uganda cannot be the one footing the cost of taking on regional giants.
Economically, Rwanda is a regional minnow. With $9.511B, it stands out as a clear dwarf among neighbors. Rwanda being landlocked, it depends on others for trade. It has only benefited from the magnanimity and goodwill of Kampala to allow its imports to pass through to Kigali, otherwise, the alternatives are too costly. Basic necessities like food mostly come from the region and Kagame is too lucky to be a dictator that cannot allow open dissent, otherwise, Kigali would be experiencing street riots agitating for food on a daily basis. With the current blockade of borders, the locals are being shot for just looking for survival across. Most foodstuffs come from outside of Rwanda and the common folks have felt the brunt.
Socially, Rwanda cannot detach itself from the geo-social fabric of the region. The major two ethnic groups, the Tutsi and Hutu are spread all over the region with close ties across borders having been part of the greater Mpororo dynasty.
So, it is too difficult to close the borders and live an illusion that even the social circles are closed. Bafumbira in Uganda, Nyamurenge in Eastern Congo, Hutu in Burundi and Hema in Tanzania have close links socially. So, since Rwanda is at loggerheads with all the regional neighbors, at what cost can Rwanda sever ties of people who have interacted for centuries? I think Kagame’s rants can only serve the “feel good” warble, a mere huff of a desperate soul trying to punch the air where victory doesn’t exist.
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