If elections were a synonym for a football tournament, primaries would be group stages where each player plays with a sole purpose of qualifying to the knockout stage. It is a balancing act of giving it all, but also avoiding injuries that may put you out of the most coveted position at the finals.
Party primaries have turnout to be both political graveyards, but also maternity homes where new kids on the block blossom. Old guards have fallen on the way side as young Turks emerge. Since all players are focused on playing in the finals, all tricks and tactics are ruthlessly employed to outwit the opponent to the extent that many are left with broken limbs, shuttering their hopes of lifting the trophy.
Primaries are an audacious challenge to both the organisers and the contestants. They drain energies, whip emotions and too costly, yet facing friendly forces, whose hard tackle may rock the whole boat. So it is a tricky act of differentiating the devil from the deity.
Parties have tackled this issue differently, taking into account party dynamics. Whereas the National Resistance Movement(NRM) went in for universal suffrage and the lining up behind a preferred candidate, other parties chose selection panels, hand-picking and merely expression of interest. All these have pros and cons, but the biggest question is, other than the NRM universal suffrage, do the other parties meet the threshold of democratic choice. The universal suffrage has its logistical challenges, but at least it gives chance to the voter to express his right to choose.
Other parties like the National Unity Platform (NUP) that resorted to selection, have caused both internal anxiety and external criticism of favouritism and extortion. According to critics, among the contestants are sacred cows whose positions are assured by virtue of their proximity to the power centre. It is a widely held notion that it is just a formality to subject some contestants to interviews, but their fate is predetermined. A case commonly referred to, is that of Nyanzi Fred Ssentamu, a brother to Bobi Wine, contesting in Kawempe South, however good his opponent may be, he cannot miss the party card. In Nakawa division, the incumbent Mayor Paul Mugambe is battling it out with a political greenhorn Nubianli Buken Ali but in spite of the fact that Mugambe has immense experience in city politics and is popular, it remains to be seen how it will pan out. The chances are that, his proximity to Bobi Wine will earn him the card rather than his ability and popularity.
Allegations of extortion and bribery are abound. The principle applied here is the level of competition among the contestants, the chances of winning on NUP card, the financial standing of the contestant, loyalty to Kyagulanyi Ssentamu Robert (Bobi Wine) and regular financial contribution to the party. The contest between Hon. Shamim Malende and Zahara Luyirika Ssekibaala for the Kampala women seat, promises fireworks within the selection panel. Public opinion is divided. The assertion that Shamim has been sickly for the bigger part of her term, she has nothing tangible to show as achievement and there is no guarantee that the ailment wont persist in the next term. Yet on the other hand Zahara has been the Kampala Capital City Authority(KCCA) speaker, with close links in the NUP leadership. This will be a battle of the titans since the panel is split right in the middle. With the high political heat, Hon. Muwanga Kivumbi was forced to convene a reconciliation meeting between the two protagonists to cool the tempers.
The parties like Peoples Front for Freedom(PFF), Forum for Democratic Change(FDC), JEEMA, Uganda Peoples Congress(UPC), and Democratic Party(DP) are applying a policy of handpicking or accepting anyone who shows interest in vying on their tickets. This could be a result of having limited grassroots support or lacking people who have a conviction that such parties can propel them to victory with their card. The split of FDC has made the two parties(FDC&PFF) struggle for traction. There is no clear area or region that can be seen as a stronghold for each of them. So anyone showing interest is likely to get the card.
NUP’s popularity has been dented by the formation of the Democratic Front(DF) splinter. Buganda has been its stronghold, but the emergence of DF with Hon. Mathias Mpuga as the vision bearer, has strongly affected its standing in Greater Masaka. Mpuga and Bwanika who hail from Masaka are a formidable duo that can upset any power center in greater Masaka region. It is evident that DF has made strong inroads in greater Masaka to the extent that almost all NUP incumbents are having DF contestants standing against them.
UPC has its traditional stronghold of Lango, though it faces NRM onslaught. Its internal mechanism of picking candidates is easy given the dismal numbers that have shown interest. DP is an endangered species, DP has always been a regional outfit masquerading as a national party. It has been a Buganda party, but the emergence of NUP and DF has dissipated its showing. Internal wrangles have eroded its shine, now it is an open door policy for whoever wishes to stand on its party card.
However, with all this party dynamics, the question is, can democracy be upheld for the voter to exercise his right to choose a candidate of choice at the party level through a competitive, fair and verifiable process? Certainly, it is only NRM that has had a semblance of democracy of universal suffrage, though with intervening logistical challenges. Allegations of voter bribery, rigging, intimidation are localized to specific areas, it should be pointed out that our politics is local, so the local political fluidity determines the heat at the grassroots. This has the potential of generating violence.
The skirmishes witnessed in the NRM primaries, implies two things. First, the NRM ticket offers a realistic chance to the contestant to win in areas where it has support. In most cases, primaries are more competitive than the general elections since whoever wins is assured of victory at the national poll, so primaries are a do or die affair.
The second reason is that violence is fomented by goons that have infiltrated the NRM supporters to cause mayhem. The criminals have a belief that security handles NRM supporters with kid gloves even when caught on the wrong side of the law, thus causing violence through organized gangs called, “Gaali”. In the recent past, gangs donning NRM yellow T-shirt were marauding, wreaking havoc under the guise of protecting the vote of the respective candidates. This was flagged as an act of criminality and all those involved and identified were arrested and arraigned before courts of law, however this should also be seen as an expression of enthusiasm of the support NRM enjoys in some areas with organic popularity.
NRM with its adult suffrage flaws and challenges, offers a genuine attempt to allow voters pick candidates of their choice, can other parties emulate this principle, instead of reclusive methods of selection that are devoid of democratic tenets to allow voters to choose.