How Latif Ssebagala Will Impact Power Play in Kampala Mayoral Race
Kampala is an area where politics of virtues, principles, ideology, stature, and personality runs in short supply as long as you align with the right political forces opposed to the establishment. It is not enough to profess your proclivity for opposing NRM, but rather to know which opposing forces you have to coalesce into, especially one of the many DP factions if you have to stand a chance. It is a tricky balance especially when the two main opposition parties; DP and FDC are pitted against each other in the same constituency.
The 2021 Kampala Lord Mayoral race envisions a specter of two giants tussling it out in a common backyard. Unless incumbent Lord Mayor Eriasa Lukwago, pursues his presidential bid ambitions, the entry of Latif Sebagala in the race roils the political waters of this race. Both candidates share a lot in common. This puts the voter in a tricky position to make a choice between the two. It is possible other parties may field candidates, especially NRM, independents, and any other political formations, but the main contenders shall be the duo. Both are Baganda, Muslims, DP background though both are more of renegades acting independently. Latif Ssebagala may have an edge over Lukwago due to strong family background, unlike Lukwago who built his political career through populism of the opposition wave.
The question is what does this portend to the politics of the wider opposition? The underlying precept behind DP reunion is an attempt to minimize fights and contradictions at the time of fielding candidates at different levels, but the presence of Lukwago and Ssebagala on the same ballot is a humongous test of voters’ taste, most especially the Muslim block. What does this mean to the water melon-pumpkin quislings, since these veiled barbs are intended to spike the images of the wayward? Does this render any chance of closing ranks in the wider opposition? The intriguing part is that both bulls don’t have a political home, Lukwago consorts with FDC more than DP and Ssebagala run as an independent after an attempt to edge him out of Kawempe North by Lukwago’s Suubi faction. This presages a fight of bruised egos in the mayoral race and whoever will throw more targeted blows may claim the day.
Besigye’s stance to appear on the 2021 presidential ballot paper throws the mayoral race in a precarious state since it renders guesswork to Lukwago’s next move, should he stick to the mayoral seat and tussle it out with Latif or should he stick to his presidential ambitions and face Besigye to fight for opposition card? Either way, Lukwago has to make a major decision if he has to keep afloat in the murky waters. Can the Ssebagala family fame rock his boat or he will be in a position to galvanize the opposition vote in spite of his quivery family background? On the other hand, Ssebagala can easily roll back in the DP fold and gain the support of the DP block as he is less truculent to the mainstream DP leadership of President General Norbert Mao. It is at this point that push will come to shove. If Lukwago wins the favor of Besigye and FDC against Ssebagala/ DP, where does this place the NRM candidate in the fray? Will Besigye still have the clout to sway the vote towards Lukwago, what about the influence of people power wave, where Besigye is seen as a stumbling block in the way of Bobi Wine?
In this power play, the NRM candidate may have a field day as the two rend themselves to pieces. The NRM machinery will have a field day in fomenting the rivalry, where its candidate may be the beneficiary. The Ssebagala family is more influential in the Muslim fraternity than Lukwago. The UTODA group that was predominantly Muslim has never forgiven Lukwago for its demise and at any opportune chance, it would pay back in kind. Whereas UTODA disbanded, its major players still hold clout in the taxi business and the Ummah fraternity. Also, the overall picture of the voters doesn’t point to Lukwago as having achieved substantially in Kampala, apart from the endless whining against former ED Jenipher Musisi. Would Lukwago outsmart Latif Ssebagala or will his political Elba dawn on him for his political tottering.
