FDC SPLIT: IS IT DIRTY MONEY OR POWER GREED?
The wrangles that have pervaded the Forum for Democratic Change for some time have now generated a lot of debate among political pundits. Many are questioning the true reason behind the fall out between the Katonga faction led by Erias Lukwago, the Kampala Lord Mayor, supported by the founding president of FDC, Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Najjanankumbi faction led by the current president, Patrick Odoi Amuriat.
Political boffins aver that the current tumultuous happenings are the tail end of a long standing feud that started at the time Patrick Amuriat assumed power. From the start Amuriat was not seen a worthy successor to Dr. Besigye, even when it is him who schemed for Amuriat to defeat Gen. Gregory Mugisha Muntu. It came to a time when the dislike for Gen. Mugisha Muntu outweighed reason. In the eyes of many, Amuriat was no match for Muntu in terms of charisma and acumen, but Muntu had to leave.
It was an open debate whether Amuriat would fit in the large shoes of Dr. Besigye whose politics of activism and confrontation had shaped the ideology of FDC. Among the party stalwarts, Amuriat lacked the valour and zeal to propel the party forward. Even the challenges by Hon. Nandala Mafabi were an attempt to shake him and test his resilience. It was resolved that Nandala settles for Secretary General Post as a way of shoring his weaknesses.
It is alleged that actually it is Nandala who runs the show, Amuriat is just a stooge ready to rubber stamp the decisions of Nandala. This state of affairs is what ultimately led to the current situation where Dr. Besigye alleges hundreds of millions were taken to his home by Nandala without disclosing the source.
The politics of money has always pervaded FDC with accusations and counter-accusations of members getting cozy with the government. The tensions have been rising with an apparent reduction in grassroots visibility.
The emergence of the National Unity Platform was a telling blow to Amuriat. Areas that were hitherto FDC strongholds have been taken over by NUP,shrinking the party influence. There has been little effort by Amuriat to reclaim lost glory more so central region which initially supported FDC under the stewardship of Mengo at the time when there was bad blood with government. The circumstances that led to the closure of Central Broadcasting Services Radio, stopping the Kabaka to visit Kayunga and the fight about ebyaffe, provided cannon fodder for the massive support of FDC. Amuriat rode on this tiff.
With the normalization of relationship between Mengo and central government, FDC was an inevitable causality. This factor was the biggest setback for Amuriat in Buganda, let alone that his character wasn’t appealing in a generally tribal setting of central Uganda.
During Dr. Besigye’s reign, Northern Uganda and Teso regions were firmly in his grip. NRM which was the other big party struggled to gain traction in those regions. Most MPs and local councils were predominantly FDC. This meant that FDC as a party had a high political standing to influence policy agenda and force government to act in a particular way. The sizeable number of opposition MPs in the legislature from these two regions meant that government ideas were crowded out, instead an opposition narrative had firm grip.
On this realization, the government changed tact and stormed the regions with development programs, talking to dissenting voices, courting elders and opinion leaders and in the next round of elections, FDC was almost whitewashed. Thesituation exacerbated the woes of Amuriat and FDC. Unfortunately, Amuriat had little he could do, given that he was facing an internal revolt engineered by external factors. The government seized the opportunity to present itself as the good boy.
The shift of northern political fortunes against FDC meant that Amuriat had to find solace in Teso region, unfortunately the local political matrix went against him. The emergence of two strong personalities in the names of Hon. Jessica Alupo as Vice president and Rt. Hon. Annet Anita Among as speaker was the tail end of his political fortunes. He was totally dwarfed by their presence, the populace followed the new strong personalities since they offered a better opportunity to benefit the region. They saw nothing of material value to continue opposing the government. This meant that Amuriat become hollow even in his backyard.
FDC as a party due to internal contradictions, different factions sponsored different candidates that in the end affected the overall election outcomes both at national and local levels. This was seen as Amuriat’s failure to unify the party after a bruising contest. It was clear that FDC stature was sliding and this called for the elders’ intervention, which also compounded the situation. This intervention was seen as a power hangover of those who had retired. Amuriat wanted to stamp his authority against a formidable force that had played a big role in installing him at the helm. It was a catch 22.
It is believed that with dwindling fortunes, Amuriat found himself with a deficit budget to run the party, yet he had to show the elders that he can go it alone anyway. This made him so vulnerable to the political arithmetic of the political class. The circumstances around the money allegations are fussy and it takes a lot of introspection to believe either side. It is more of emotions than facts presented.
In all this, the biggest mistake Amuriat committed was to think that he could steer the party by shrugging off the elders’ overbearing presence. The outbursts by Dr. Besigye clearly illustrate this stance. There were better ways of handling the money issue internally, but because Besigye has never accepted to move on, he had to put it out in the public domain.
The two power bases at Katonga and Najjanankumbi are a representation of power schism which had been simmering for long. The eruption may not have happened at a better time than now that there are out blown internal contradictions in NUP which could be taken advantage of. It is suspect how fast the decision to dissolve FDC and create another political party without exploring possibilities of solving these contradictions. The stage is set for a titanic duel that is likely to leave both sides bruised. The question is who is going to fish from the roiled waters. Can FDC straddle on or the coroner should prepare its epitaph?
