The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has unveiled its forecast for the March to May 2024 season, indicating a heightened likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions across vast regions of the Greater Horn of Africa. Notably, this forecast encompasses Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and north-western Tanzania.
The regions most anticipated to experience these increased wet conditions span central to western Kenya and the cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. The anticipated surge in rainfall is poised to positively influence agriculture, water resources, and overall livelihoods.
An early to regular onset of rainfall is anticipated in various parts of the region, including northern Tanzania, eastern Rwanda, southern and western Uganda, western Kenya, south-western Somalia, and sections of south-central Ethiopia.
Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC, remarked, “With the elevated rainfall recorded from October to December 2023, coupled with the forecast for wetter-than-normal conditions from March to May, there’s a heightened risk of flooding in flood-prone areas. This forecast stresses the importance of unified action and readiness, emphasizing proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts and harness the opportunities presented by the projected rainfall. Let’s unite in our dedication to utilizing climate information for resilient and sustainable development throughout our region.”
He further emphasized, “While the outlook for food security may improve with the anticipated wetter conditions, it’s crucial to acknowledge the myriad challenges facing the region, including the historic 2020-2022 drought, ongoing conflicts in various parts such as Sudan, and the El Nino-induced floods in late 2023. These factors have compromised communities’ resilience, rendering them highly vulnerable to food insecurity. The possibility of flooding during the 2024 MAM season in certain regions could exacerbate food security issues in localized areas.”
The temperature forecast indicates a heightened probability of warmer-than-normal surface temperatures across the entire region, with the most significant probabilities for warmer conditions observed over Sudan, northern South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and southern Tanzania.
In accordance with the guidelines and recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecast method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa. The MAM 2024 seasonal climate outlook was derived from February 2024 initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs), processed using three calibration techniques
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