Building Bridges Initiative: Is It The Silver Bullet to Kenya’s Electoral Violence?

After 14 months of consultations in the 47 counties of neighboring Kenya, the task force led by venerable Senator Yusuf Hajji, unveiled the BUILDING BRIDGES INITIATIVE (BBI) report at Bomas of Kenya on Wednesday with flair and pomp, embellished in speeches that portrayed a normative desire than reality. It was a moment of soul searching yet reality was sidled to assuage the simmering tensions that eventually came to the fore when senator Kipchumba Murkomen (Majority Leader of the Senate) picked the Microphone from the master of ceremonies, Junet Mohammed (minority leader) who happens to come from the opposition party Orange for Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Raila Odinga, whose intransigence to accept the outcome of 2017 elections led to the nullification of the result and subsequent re-run which he boycotted.

The aftermath of this nullified election was marred by violence, burning of businesses, looting, killings, boycott of business assumed to have links with personalities in the Jubilee party and outright call for civil disobedience by Raila Odinga. Nairobi was a battlefield without a frontline, no economic activity, and pervasive chaos. This took several weeks and it brought the country to a standstill. It took the magnanimity of the two protagonists to bury the hatchet and made overtures to talk peace. The BBI can be hailed for having led to the cessation of violence, but reality lies outside of this well transcendent document.

Kenyan politics is highly tribal, whoever comes from the major tribes of Mt Kenya, Rift Valley and Nyanza regions, has a greater sway to determine an election outcome, as long as they can garner the support of small tribes. However, historically the major tribes of Kikuyu and the Rift Valley have always united to scuttle chances of another big tribe of the Luos led by Raila Odinga. The Odinga hegemony started from Jaramogi (his father) and has been in opposition to a point that they have been christened “Perennial losers”. This tribal divide blended with cultural norms of circumcision makes it hard for the other tribes to accept them since they are viewed as “boys”. Almost all tribes of Kenya circumcise except the Luos.

This is more palpable as out of the four presidents, three are Kikuyu and one Kalenjin and even now the deputy president, Dr. William Samoei Kipchirchir Ruto, a Kalenjin is seen as a frontrunner in the 2022 presidential contest.

This scenario and the call for “INCLUSIVITY” leaves western Kenya with one option of agitation and violence to have a chance of getting into government by making the country ungovernable through riots and mayhem. Twice, Raila Odinga has gotten in government as Prime Minister and currently as envoy to the African Union in charge of infrastructure, a post he got as a creature of 9^th march 2018 “handshake” deal, that ultimately birthed the BBI that was unveiled on Wednesday.

During the consultations, there was a lot of speculation about two main issues; the position of the Prime Minister and where the executive powers would be vested, could it be with the President or Prime Minister. It turned out that the faction allied to Raila, who are alive to the reality of Kenya’s tribal politics and the chances of Raila (Luo) beating Dr. Ruto (Kalenjin) in 2022 are limited if the pattern of voting remained the same way it has always been. The only realistic chance is to tweak the constitution through BBI, to make the PM position go to the big loser, most likely Raila, with executive powers.

The conundrum facing the Raila phalanx is that the BBI report has proposed that the position of Prime Minister should be filled by an MP from the majority side in the National Assembly. This puts Raila in a tricky position because if he runs for President, he cannot contest for MP at the same time in order to qualify to be appointed PM. Worse still, his party must get majority members in parliament, a feat to surmount.

Two tribal Kingpins, Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi, who are principles in the National Super Alliance (NASA) coalition fell out with Raila due to the reclusive nature the handshake was executed. They faulted Raila Odinga for having engaged President Uhuru in talks without involving the NASA coalition. This fallout changes the political configuration and fortunes of Raila in their tribal enclaves.

Even in the Kibera by-elections, these two NASA principles fielded separate candidates. This exposes the vulnerability of Raila in two large tribes of Kisii and Luhyia. The call for “inclusivity” is an antidote to the historical glitch of “winner takes it all”. The quandary, however, is, should political rejects that lose at the ballot be rewarded for their mediocrity? The call for inclusivity presupposes that losers have to be appointed to government positions irrespective of their opposing political ideology.

This is a tricky position for any elected President. How do you appoint an opponent while sidelining your own support base? This is why the major tribes dominate government positions. At every round of elections, there is an acrimonious atmosphere, so tense that talking to your opponent is seen as an act of betrayal to the support base that prefers to maintain a clear dichotomy between winners and losers. Even Raila has had to explain to fervently why it was necessary to talk to Uhuru. Initially, there were calls to him to continue infractions against the electoral outcome.

The rhetorical question is CAN BBI OFFER A PATHWAY TO SETTLE KENYA’S ELECTORAL VIOLENCE? A critical analysis of the proposals reveals that it is presenting more questions than answers, that is why none of the protagonists has come out to declare victory in the wake of its report, in fact, the debate has now shifted from the BBI content to who should have to make a final decision on the changes proposed. It is clear, Dr. Ruto’s side wants the debate in parliament as a representative body yet the Raila side wants a referendum.

Given Kenya’s nature of politics, it is the tribal sentiments that are going to drive the debate and tribal kingpins will determine the direction of the debate trajectory. Still, this will push for tribal demagoguery instead of seeking public convergence of opinions.

So, many prominent politicians have chosen to sit on the fence, because they know that at the end of the day of reckoning, the electoral process will be determined by tribal alliances rather than ideological correctness or grounding and there will be a price to pay at the ballot for allying with a “wrong person” during the BBI debate. Even the cross-cutting politicians supporting either side, are only doing it with a selfish motive, not to be seen as opposing Uhuru’s initiative for peace. Jubilee members from central Kenya and Rift Valley supporting Raila, know the risk at home but have a feeling that the Kikuyus this time round may ally with Raila against Ruto.

Ruto is facing opposition in Jubilee for his apparent negativity to the handshake by Uhuru. His stance is coached in fear that Uhuru may sway allegiance of Kikuyus to Raila in 2022. It had been rumored that the handshake was a ploy to keep Uhuru as Prime Minister with executive powers while Raila assumes the presidency, which he refuted at Bomas of Kenya.

From the public debate raging and political grapevine, it seems BBI was the masterstroke Uhuru pulled off to gain some respite in his term, but it will not evince a solution to deeply engrained tribal politics and the violence that characterize the election aftermath every round of general elections in Kenya.