Opposition parties all over the world are seen as alternative governments in waiting, in Uganda, the reality is that the opposition is government to wait. The provenance of any political party lies in espoused ideology of its founders with a sublime target of either achieving power or attaining a specific purpose for which it was founded.
In Uganda, it is hard to define the ideology of any party, let alone the rallying call of its members. Parties look like a bunch of befuddled lot, ready to clutch at every twist and turn of the ruling party, in a narcissistic hope that a miracle will happen and NRM falls flat on its face. It is true ruling parties can unravel due to internal contradictions when members see the leadership veer off the core values and a potent threat from the opposition, splinters emerge to defend the tuff.
The overriding desire is to get power, hold it and scuttle any plans of the opposition to take it. This is commonplace in a parliamentary system. The faction that fails to reconcile to the desired changes, either join the existing opposition parties or form new parties with an almost similar ideology like the mother party, but differing in approach.
In Uganda, it seems the opposition is content with whatever trappings that come with opposing the government. They rummage through NRM policies, eviscerate them fervently without policy alternatives. For the past three months, the president has been on the road, crusading his prosperity drive, instead of suggesting policy alternatives, they have been consumed in calling it a campaign ruse. Politics is a game of politicians; any politician will seize any opportunity to play politics however veiled the approach is.
That is why Dr Besigye holds a “state of the nation” address in his home, well aware that such is totally inconsequential skit for national theatre. But politics being what it is, he basks in the news flash moments for a couple of days, providing fodder for a myriad of “analysts” on talk shows and print commentaries.
Whether the president’s countrywide travels are portrayed as early campaigns, it does offer him the chance to present himself as a proactive president and the audience that partakes the goodies that come with his presence is damned at the opposition stance to spoil the dinner. These tours endear the president to the grassroots, where most parties don’t reach, as most of them are Kampala based. The fact is that the president was voted based on the manifesto that had poverty fight through operation wealth creation (OWC).
On many occasions, the opposition has acknowledged its weakness and lack of ability to beat NRM at the ballot, yet a unified front is the last think on their mind. Each party is in a comfort zone given their positions in the wider group. FDC is contented with having the leader of the opposition and the frills that come with it.
The finances that are remitted to parties either by govt as part of party financing or foreign funders are another source of comfort. Individual parties prefer to play solo so that any funding is enjoyed solely. This has been a source of friction between parties, the bigger overshadow the small ones, yet even the small ones have their core bases. A party like DP, which is essentially a regional outfit, masquerading as a national party has support in Buganda, JEMA has a strong base among Muslims and FDC has a fairly national outlook.
All these parties after elections, start jostling for posts like opposition chief whip, heads of oversight committees, commissioners of parliament, etc. These pecks blur the bigger picture and members strive to keep afloat focusing on personal goals to win the next election rather than scheming how collectively they would capture power.
The failure to widen opposition horizon makes it too suspect, wherever NRM has over years had support, remains a stronghold, yet people who espouse the same views, fall over each other vying for the same constituencies without making inroads in those NRM regions. The case in point is Rubaga south and KCAA mayoral races.
Hon Kato Lubwama has more contenders in the opposition than in the NRM. Mayor Lukwago is facing a challenge of Hon Latif Sebaggala, Dr Bwanika, Joseph Mayanja who are opposition figures, instead of attacking constituencies held by NRM. They all target soft urban constituencies that are easy to mobilize rather than rural areas where NRM still holds sway. The general abstraction is that there is no single party that is strong enough to challenge NRM or the president, but even with this in mind, they can’t agree on a single candidate.
The incendiary pop of Bobi Wine on the political stage has caused a fairy tale infatuation within the opposition diehards, but the reality is that he is not a unifying choice in the opposition fold. There are people who can’t see the character of Bobi Wine being the flag bearer, purely based on his past. The hype is mostly in Buganda; whose subtle endorsement has tribal undertones. The Twebereremu mantra is a veiled call to shun the non-Baganda, something that has not gone well with people like Dr Besigye.
The feeling is that it is time for power to shift to Buganda. Honestly, no one can precisely predict the wave out of the central region. It is true Bobi Wine is a popular musician, but that doesn’t translate into a popular choice politician. He is not the kind of person to fill the oversized shoes of Museveni. The bellicose approach of his politics is a replica of the walk to work menace that caused mayhem in the city. This makes people fidgety at a replay of the same specter.
Even those who want change loathe the potential for chaos looking at the fan base of Bobi wine and what they are capable of. If the opposition had a magic wand of policy proposals that can create employment for the jobless youth bulge, they would be darlings to most youths, though many of don’t look up to Bobi Wine as their role model worth emulating.
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