The Kenya Finance Bill protests, widely known by the hashtag #RejectFinanceBill2024, took an ugly turn on July 2, with demonstrators now demanding President William Ruto’s resignation. This brewing conflict is traced back to the 2023 anti-government protests that followed the passing of tax reforms in the “Kenya Finance Bill 2023” led by erstwhile prime minister Raila Odinga, leaving about six people dead and dozens injured.
Kenya seems to have forgotten easily, and all concerned authorities went into slumber to the extent that by May 2024, when heavy criticism ensued against the proposed tax increases by younger Kenyans (GenZ), the powers that be paid a deaf ear to it either out of ignorance, sheer arrogance or hypocrisy and political intrigue.
How could a social media campaign, escalate to such levels right in the face of all state intelligence and security machinery moreover in a rather sophisticated economy like Kenya’s at least according to African standards? There was negligence in terms of designing a preemptive move by Ruto’s political and or security strategists. Unfortunately, they came in for a firefighting and reactive move, which further escalated the rather volatile situation.
The Baganda have this rather scary saying: “Ssemusota guli mu ntamu…….,” loosely translated as; “a big snake coiled in a cooking pot”.
The solution to deal with such a dilemma is what constitutes the challenge. Do you kill this snake, and subsequently break the cooking pot or you leave it and go hungry for an unknown period?
This seems to be President Ruto’s catch 22 situation during his first term of office as President of Kenya.
The laxity of his political, and security strategists exposes President Ruto’s dilemma with a big snake in his cooking pot. His dilemma is how to kill it, without breaking the pot, and or how does he live with it yet avoid its venom!
With 2027 just around the corner for yet another showdown election period, the anti-finance bill riots have left President Ruto severely weakened domestically with his administration divided in it’s response and his opponents rejuvenated, seeking to harness the wave of discontent ahead of the elections. After protests erupting countrywide, including in Ruto’s hometown, Eldoret, and louder calls for his departure, his administration MUST fight for survival. Luckily, the next election is still some years away and if Ruto can shift his political position from the international outlook as Africa’s “New boy” on the block for western powers’ scramble for influence in Africa to addressing public needs for his own political survival.
This is like Colonel Cathcart in the popular Catch-22 , satirical war novel by American author Joseph Heller; who throughout the novel, violently disregards the lives of his troops and was willing to sacrifice his men to further his own ends by flying more combat missions than any other unit, to be seen as brave by his superiors even though he had never flown a single combat mission. Ruto in equal measure is perceived so much to play for the international gallery at the detriment of the Kenyan citizens. For instance Kenya’s Daily Nation newspaper, while highlighting the scale of his globe-trotting, tallies Ruto’s total of 62 trips to 38 countries in his first 20 months in power.
The only way to face the challenge and dilemma of the snake in the cooking pot, is by Ruto adopting to captain John Yossarian’s role in the war Novel, who attempted to maintain the sanity of his troops while fulfilling their service requirements so that they may return home; by choosing to retreat under the guise of a chronic liver condition to avoid flying further combat missions since his troops had grown disillusioned with the war effort and distrustful of their commanding officers. As the novel progresses, Yossarian’s moral character and courage emerge more clearly, in contrast to his seeming selfishness and cowardice when first introduced. In the end, he is shown to be an honest, loyal, and able flyer than colonel Cathcart.
Therefore, President Ruto’s dilemma can be addressed by a retreat from the international role of the super boy for the western balance of powers’ game in Africa to a rather patriotic role of stabilising his own “homestead”, if he is to emerge formidable in the 2027 elections.
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