There is a Luganda epigram that says, its only mountains that don’t meet, but people meet. What it doesn’t say is when people meet, what happens. In Masaka at the burial of Pascal Sekasamba, a brother to the former Democratic Party secretary general, Mathias Nsubuga, the mountains met and it was a volcanic eruption in face of the mourners and a grieving family. When it came to the time of speeches, Dr Abed Bwanika went ballistic, saying it all to the face of Bobi Wine. It was a candid talk and dress-down of the “pulisimpo” infront of his local infanteers baying for Mpuuga’s blood. Mpuuga played the innocent and let his attack-dog, Bwanika upbraid their leader. As expected the pulinsipo foot soldiers weren’t amused and at some point one of them tried to grab the mic from Bwanika in order to stem the tirade, but Bwanika wasn’t yet done, he went on with his berating.
Clearly it was a well-orchestrated salvo, knowing that the duo has the backing of the home turf. You would see there was a bit of prior mobilization on both sides. The melee brought out two salient issues. First, is it possible the duo can hold on their seats without the backing of NUP? There is a general truism that without Bobi Wine “masanyalaze” recapturing their seat in 2026 will be a tall order. This is the very reason why most MPs opposed to Bobi Wine’s leadership style are either quiet or lackluster in expressing their stand. The truth is that most of them fear, based on his whirlwind popularity in Buganda in the last election where people got elected by merely looking at the umbrella symbol. Immediately after elections Nyeko the MP for Makindye had a roadside stop-over to greet and thank his voters, to everyone’s surprise he was asked who he was. Voters had been drawn in the euphoria of “buli wolaba umbrella tickinga” loosely translated as, tick wherever you see the umbrella.
The duo seems to bask in the backing of the Masaka region, but it isn’t certain that the popularity at home overshadows that of NUP or Bobi Wine. It is a matter of perception. On the other hand, Masaka has a strong showing of Catholics. In the last election, Bobi Wine’s strong pillars were the Catholic Church and Mengo. In this duel, it is tricky for Bwanika, a Pentecostal to win over the Catholic Church support against their own, who offers a chance to have a catholic president. Can they have to sacrifice the greater good for the homeboy? In Masaka, religion is stronger than any other consideration during elections. Tribal talk is the least consideration. Actually, tribal inclination or overplaying a tribal card can make one lose, given greater Masaka is predominantly non-Baganda.
However, Masaka as a region, may look at Kyagulanyi as an outsider fighting their sons. So it is a bit dicey, but the fact that the duo has come out blazing, it gives the impression that they are safe on the home turf. What transpired at the burial augments the view that NUP supporters are a violent lot that can’t stand a divergent view. The attempt to grab the mic from Bwanika was a blatant display of intolerance. However, what came out prominently is the fact that with Bobi Wine’s braggadocio, he was tamed and he humbled himself when he was given the Mic. He was jittery of the backlash if he had chosen to go head-on. Bobi Wine cut a reconciliatory tone devoid of his abrasive innuendos filled with derogatory remarks. He had to tread carefully, playing the victim and appealing to the crowd. It was a direct opposite of his known demeanor. This means he can be humbled.
The second issue that came out of the Masaka debacle is that political pundits are now punching holes in the infallibility of Bobi Wine as portrayed by his fawners.
It has been a taboo to take on Bobi Wine in public without a direct pushback either from him or his fanatical following. Bwanika demystified this publicly. The question now is, can those who aren’t comfortable with Bobi Wine’s style of politics criticize him publicly? This confrontation has emboldened NUP quislings to come out openly and criticize him or even revolt. Are we likely to see many dissenting voices after Bobi being humbled in Masaka?
The biggest trump-card of the Bwanika-Mpuuga duo is their ability to suck Mengo into the fight. They have harped on the derogatory language used by NUP on Mengo establishment, most especially the Katikiro. Katikiro Mayiga has often faced a barrage of abuses by Bobi’s lapdogs. What the duo has taken on as a strategy is to overplay that line which has attracted comments from Mayiga.
Publicly in the presence of Bobi wine, Mayiga criticized him for his stand not to take a reconciliatory stance to sort out the Mpuuga tiff. He told him that one of the qualities of good leadership is the ability to engage those with divergent views. He wondered why people who speak the same language, with common cultural values couldn’t reconcile. He may have put it calmly, but it was a coded message to signify change in attitude. It should be remembered that Mayiga personally took a direct stand to campaign for him while excoriating the government. It should be recalled that at one time during the heat of campaigns, he used a metaphor that in “Buganda we only pick mature red coffee” and not yellow or green. Indirectly he was telling Baganda voters to vote red which is NUP’s colour. This line of thinking has been dealt a telling blow by Bwanika when he constantly calls on Bobi Wine and his followers to stop abusing the Katikiro and also respect other leaders. If you listen to CBS, there is a radical departure from the praises Kyagulanyi used to receive from presenters and talk show hosts. This will count so much in future elections.
From the Masaka political battlefield, NUP’s epitaph was written awaiting for its internment if the negative sentiments aren’t stemmed in time. If the intellectual wing is edged out of NUP, the radical wing will be in charge and the end game will be determined by time.
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