Political parties, especially in Uganda, are formed with a sole objective of gaining political power through a popular vote. However, this has been a daunting challenge for some parties given the fact that they don’t garner the numerical strength to impel them to victory. It is generally accepted within the opposition realm that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) is too formidable for a single party to surmount it through a popular vote, that is why several attempts have been hatched to form a united front to confront the ruling party.
This attempt has faced a myriad of challenges. The challenges are multifaceted depending on the core proclivity of each political party at its inception or founding. There are parties that were created as a result of a fallout with the establishment, for instance, FDC is a splinter from NRM, Gen Muntu’s Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) is a scion of FDC, yet others have a historical fervid like DP, basically Catholic and Baganda, UPC, generally protestants and outside Buganda, CP, upholding federal roots, JEEMA, espouses Muslim agenda etc.
Therefore to create a confluence of a singular idea while at the same time maintaining the core principles that rallied the founders together can be an unnerving task.
Since parties are founded on varying principles, with leaders having different capabilities and egos, a unified opposition presidential candidate is a moving target. The major question to pose is, can opposition have a unified candidate?
Firstly, if the rhetoric and posturing presently is anything to go by, it is going to be almost impossible to achieve this feat. The dawn of Bobi Wine’s People Power outfit on the political horizon has scuttled the monopoly of opposition space by FDC. It portrays itself as the answer to the perennial loss of FDC to NRM with a flagship of the youth bulge.
The general push of a parochial narrative that it is time for a Muganda to shine where Dr Kizza Besigye has failed four times, makes it almost hard to reconcile the views that Besigye has been in the trenches for eternity, but bringing Bobi Wine, an upstart to upstage seasoned Gen Yoweri Museveni is demanding too much from a political amateur.
It is a clash of egos, which neither helps Besigye nor Bobi Wine. Kampala and Wakiso have been the strongholds of FDC, and with the entry of People Power, it leaves FDC bare and empty-handed. The tribal mantra places squarely in the Buganda narrative of “now it is our time”.
That split leaves NRM gleaning. It is hard to see how any of the two paves way for the other on the ballot paper. Besigye has been circumspect on confronting People Power head-on, but the other side has been vocal calling on Besigye to cede the political space to Bobi Wine. It’s a battle of the titans in the opposition and at the end of the day, bruises and losses will be an inevitability. The Baganda see Bobi Wine as the trump card for their political redemption. Any attempt to obviate this chance is to be resisted if what Baganda political pundits say is to go by. FDC and People Power are two worlds apart, any attempt to narrow the gap will be a sweaty affair.
The DP mainstream is faced with more or less the same quandary, one side thinks it is time to field their candidate, who according to their constitution, the president General automatically holds the party flag, but another section is opposed to Norbert Mao leadership. With a Muganda on the ballot, it renders Mao a second fiddle player. Butambala MP Muwanga Kivumbi’s allegation that Mao is being bankrolled by NRM is crafted to achieve this singular purpose. To alienate him from the DP stronghold, Buganda. Buganda is so desperate to have one of their own on the ballot that Mao and DP can be sacrificed. In spite of all this, it will take a lot of soul searching for Mao to pave way for any of the two.
The advent of Gen Mugisha Muntu with his ANT compounds the opposition space. Muntu’s avowed stand is to redress the failure of FDC to out NRM from power through building party structures rather than defiance, so it is impossible to envisage a scenario where he makes way for FDC that he is sure it is non- starter.
That means Muntu will automatically appear on the ballot. It is not clear how formidable ANT will be on the ground come 2021. It is however debatable how the “rebel “FDC MPs will influence the performance of Mugisha Muntu.
Of course, the usual suspects like Mabirizi, Dr Bwanika, Mrs Kyalya may not miss the party and act as the icing on the cake. The failure to get a unified opposition candidate sets the NRM on a celebratory path to State House come 2021, given that no single party can overwhelm the popularity of Mr Museveni.