10 Reasons Bobi Wine Would Miserably Lose to Museveni and Miss out on the Army Salute
Reading through my old buddy Asuman Odoka’s slant that Bobi Wine has both the charisma and steel to outwit Museveni at the ballot, makes elections more of a comedy stunt than the art of popular choice.
An outcome of any electoral process is a sum of well-tempered actions and reactions by the candidate and trailblazing campaigning machinery. However, before this; character, history, chrome and stature of the candidate in the eyes of the electorate is cardinal. Basing on these basic tenets, comparing Bobi Wine and Museveni is like comparing cheese and chalk.
I will attempt to respectfully negate the sagacity of Bwana Odaka pound for pound;
1. INTERNATIONAL WIND AGAINST THE MUSEVENI REGIME.
In geopolitics, the term ‘international” assumes an explicit meaning. It doesn’t mean that whatever every talk show host, social media or commentator says is a reflection of international standpoint. Museveni, just like any leader will always have lonely dissenting voices in the wilderness, to have a one Robert Amsterdam drumming up vile derision as a means of livelihood is not representative of what defines international.
What is the view of the international players with whom Museveni has rubbed shoulders for decades like USA, Europe, Russia, China, and the regional players? How would they compare Bobi Wine with Museveni on an international scale? Countries are not swayed by well-crafted speeches by upstart handlers, they look at who has the acuity to provide leadership to face global challenges like terrorism and a myriad threat to humanity. You talk of change in interest by the international allies of Museveni, the reality is that there is no better time to have Museveni as a close friend in fighting terrorism and regional insecurity than now given that there is a major paradigm shift in the mindset of international players to empower more regional “superpowers” to handle regional challenges like Al-Shabaab and the Sudan conflict. World powers are scaling back on direct confrontations with their nemeses and have turned to regional powers to do the heavy lifting. Museveni fits perfect in this equation, he is tested, tried and trusted.
2. THE BUGANDA FACTOR.
It is a veracity Buganda is central in the politics of Uganda, however, it lacks both homogeneity in ideology and belonging to rally behind a common cause. Buganda is a melting pot of cultures and ethnicities that cannot be salubriously swayed along insular call. Historically, Buganda is a social construct of intermarriages and assimilation.
The assimilated who took on the names and norms of Baganda still pay allegiance to their cultural cradle, that is why in the whole of Greater Masaka, most politicians cannot play a tribal card if they have to win a vote. The same scenario plays out in the greater Mubende. Take a sneak peek into most of the MPs and district leaders, you will attest to my conspectus. This trend suffuses into families and so the voters. This renders credence to the common epigram that blood is thicker than water.
Even Bobi Wine’s family cannot escape this conundrum. What makes you think that Baganda are that gullible? The cordial relationship obtaining now between Museveni and Kabaka does not render credence to your opinion that Mengo can rally its subjects to oppose Museveni, but even then, at the height of the bad blood that simmered in 2006/2011 general elections, Buganda came out vehemently with negative stance against Museveni, but the Baganda never heeded the call and Museveni got 63% of the central region vote. Since 1996, there has been a Muganda on the ballot, what has been their performance, what makes Bobi Wine any different? The more Bobi Wine is portrayed as a regional candidate, the more other regions are galvanized to look back at history and recall how Buganda viewed them.
The Democratic Party (DP) has faced this debacle, masquerading as a national party yet it is more of a regional outfit. This is more typified by the recent call for DP re-unification where Dr. Abed Bwanika intimated about “zoning” to create a unified Buganda block. It is a fussy line.
3. THE CATHOLIC FACTOR.
To opine that Museveni has succeeded in all his elections due to the goodwill of Catholics is a futile attempt to delineate historical facts. In all the contestations where a Catholic has stood against Museveni, the Catholic Church has tenuously supported their own. Take time to analyse the speeches of the Rubaga clerics and their overlay sermons during the campaign period. The most undoing is that they have never had a candidate with aura to outwit Museveni. Bobi Wine cannot be that candidate. Statistics show that the Catholic Church is losing more faithful to the Pentecostals than all the other churches, this means reduced clout in the political arena. The Pentecostal church which is now a formidable force is firmly behind Museveni.
4. REGIONAL DIFFERENCE AND ALLIANCE.
Regional imbalance in the distribution of positions in government has both historical and political bedrock. Historically, the National Resistance Army (NRA) leadership came from majorly the western region. This meant that people in leadership, especially in the forces, had to portray that historical fact.
After the capture of power, officers who had waged wars against the NRA were integrated in an attempt to create a regional balance, but still all institutions retire workers at a certain age, so there was no way officers who joined the NRA at a tender age and occupied strategic positions could be retired to create room for others before their retirement age. There has been a deliberate move to fast-track the promotions of officers in other regions to create balance.
Another big misrepresentation of tribal imbalance is the fact that the western region has common names ranging from Nakasongora to Kabaale involving several districts and tribes. Over ten tribes in the western region share names like Byaruhanga, Mugisha etc. To anyone outside this region, the western region is viewed as only having Banyankore.
5. THE YOUTH FACTOR.
There has been a lot of talk about the youth bulge and how it resonates with the people power mantra. It is true the demographics show that around 62% of the population is below 35 years, however, two scenarios can be analyzed. First, Bobi Wine can be a good musician who appeals to the youth with his music, but he may not be a role model to them as a politician. The youth may look up to him as a role model musician given his alleged ghetto background but are not swayed to follow his political path.
The second point is that among the youth, there are many who are educated and can analyze Bobi Wine’s educational stand and the allegations of being a drug addict. No informed youth would like to associate themselves with a person with such a tainted background.
It is true a section of the youth desire change but Bobi Wine is not the change they desire. Most youth especially the uneducated know they are unemployable due to lack of academic papers and skills, so they are not competitive in the labour market yet they want to earn a living.
Museveni has provided a solution for them by offering physical cash and equipment through the Youth Livelihood Program. Can any analysis predict the effect this project will have on the vote come 2021? Youth prefer physical cash to fancy promises of a sugar candy future. Will the youth follow prophet Bobi Wine or paymaster Museveni? The odds may not favour garlanded Bobi.
6.THE BOBI WINE BRAND.
As a musician, Bobi is a selling brand but when it comes to politics, he is as green as green pepper. The fallacy that it was his brand that caused wins, in Jinja East, Bugiri, Rukungiri, and Arua is a hyperbole. The question is there were 21 by-elections why did he choose only four, why didn’t he go to Sheema to show his might? The truth is that he deliberately chose soft spots, where victory was assured. Even without his appearance, the opposition was bound to win. To win any election, you must have created brand loyalty across the spectrum of age, tribe, education, and ethics. The brand known about him is that of a drug addict who carries with him all the vices of the ghetto. The old generation abhors such a personality yet they constitute a sizeable percentage.
7. THE HARD ECONOMIC SITUATION.
Anyone without a source of income can face squarely the pangs of poverty, but the government has put in place infrastructure to boost the generation of income. The economy has been growing at 7.1%. the only challenge is how individual persons can translate this growth into disposable income. Programs that target specific groups like the youth, women, informal sector etc are intended to mitigate this situation. By 2021 the performance of these projects will exert a great impact on the vote.
8. INCREASED EDUCATION AND ENLIGHTENMENT.
Education is meant to impart knowledge that enables voters to make an object choice. To an objective and informed mind, there is nothing to compare between Bobi Wine and Museveni in the political arena. An educated person knows that income is earned through work but not handouts. So he will be compelled to be innovative, unlike the illiterate one. The government has fostered a working environment, where the educated can tap into to create their own jobs through incubation programs already in place.
Skilling projects have been rolled out for the educated to seize the opportunity to enhance their ability to be more competitive in the labour market. However, going by the last elections, it was found out the elite class that constitutes most the educated and affluent don’t vote. So they may only shape the debate in the public domain but cannot be relied upon as ardent voters.
9.THE ARMY COMFORT ZONE.
All armed forces pay allegiance to the State, not individuals, but UPDF has a unique historical formation and mission being a revolutionary army. This army will respect and salute any Commander-in-Chief elected by the people, however, it cannot sit on its laurels as peace is threatened by upstarts. The army will salute the winner though I don’t see Bobi Wine as that winner. So he may miss out on that salute. The army only salutes winners, not losers.
10.GEO-POLITICAL TRENDS.
The geopolitics in the Great Lakes region is greatly in the firm grip of Museveni. His influence and clout play a great role in shaping the politics of the region. Look at individual countries and assess the hand of Museveni as a stabilizing factor in internal politics.
From this analysis you can see that the odds are not on the side of Bobi Wine, he can only be used as a propaganda tool rather than a threat to Museveni popularity.
